Risk: Prop challenges, including futures prop firms, are paid tests: most people don’t pass, the fee is usually lost, and funded accounts are usually simulated.
Stage 5: Getting Ready for a Prop Challenge · Module 15 · Lesson 2 of 12 · Back to the prop challenge stage · Course
Prop firm marketing tends to show the winners: payout certificates, big numbers, “funded in 3 days”. This lesson shows the other side, using the few figures firms publish about all of their customers. They tell a consistent story: most people who buy a challenge don’t pass it, and most people who start never receive a payout. None of that means you can’t be one of the few. It means you should go in with your eyes open, a fixed budget, and a plan for how you’ll improve your odds for free first.
What firms themselves publish
Very few prop firms publish pass or payout rates, and those that do aren’t independently audited. Here are three examples we checked on 17 October 2026. We’ve described the sources rather than naming them, because this course doesn’t recommend or promote any firm. Their numbers may not reflect other firms.
| Source | What it says | Period |
|---|---|---|
| A large US futures prop firm (2025 figures), from its own website disclosure | 16.8% of evaluations started were passed. 51.8% of individual participants passed at least one – meaning many bought several. 33.3% of participants at the funded level received a payout. 0.71% of participants in its simulated funded accounts were moved to a live account. | Jan–Dec 2025 |
| A forex/CFD prop firm (figures since launch), from its own website disclosure | 7.35% of traders who bought a challenge passed to the funded phase. | Since the firm started (no dates given) |
| A prop-firm technology provider, via an industry news report | Of about 300,000 prop accounts analysed, around 7% achieved a payout, and the average payout was about 4% of the account size. | Reported 2024 (news report published March 2025) |
All three figures are self-reported by the firms or provider and haven’t been independently audited.
Reading these numbers honestly
- Per attempt vs per person. “16.8% of evaluations passed” and “51.8% of people passed at least one” can both be true, because many people buy several evaluations. A per-person figure always looks better.
- Passing isn’t being paid. Using the US futures firm’s figures as a rough calculation of our own: if about half of participants reach the funded level and about a third of those receive a payout, that’s roughly 1 in 6 participants ever being paid anything – and some of those will have spent more on fees than they received.
- Being paid once isn’t making money overall. Fees, resets and failed attempts all come first.
- “Live” capital is rare. Most funded accounts are simulated. At the firm that publishes this, under 1% of funded participants were moved to a live account.
- Different firms, different rules. A firm with easier rules but tighter payout conditions might show a higher pass rate and a lower payout rate. Don’t compare single figures in isolation.
Why most attempts fail
From the rules you met in Lesson 15.1, the usual reasons are predictable:
- Risking too much per trade to reach the target quickly – then hitting the daily loss limit on an ordinary losing streak.
- No tested strategy. Without evidence that your rules have an edge after costs, the result is close to a coin toss – before the rules tilt it against you.
- Time pressure – real or imagined – leading to forced trades.
- Revenge trading after a loss, trying to “get it back” on the same day (see Revenge trading and tilt).
- Rule misunderstandings – trailing drawdown, equity-based daily limits, news restrictions.
- Costs – spreads and commissions inside the simulated account eat a thin edge.
The full cost of getting funded
The sticker price is only one attempt. A full list looks like this:
- Challenge fees – for every attempt, not just the one you pass.
- Resets or retries – often discounted, but still money.
- Activation or monthly fees – some firms charge on passing, or rebill monthly until you pass.
- Card and currency fees – many firms charge in US dollars. Many UK cards charge a non-sterling transaction fee, often around 3%.
- Platform or data fees – charting subscriptions, market data for futures.
- Your time – the hours spent, which could be spent practising for free on demo.
- Tax – if you are paid, payouts are likely to be taxable (see our UK tax guide).
Worked example: the maths of several attempts (illustrative numbers)
All figures are made up for teaching purposes, using a pass rate in the range some firms publish. They aren’t any firm’s real prices or your real odds.
Jordan plans to buy a £80 challenge and has decided on a maximum of 4 attempts. Jordan assumes a 15% chance of passing each attempt, and a 33% chance of receiving at least one payout once funded. If Jordan does get paid, the first payout is £400.
| Result | Value |
|---|---|
| Chance of passing within 4 attempts | 1 − 0.85⁴ ≈ 48% |
| Chance of failing all 4 (spending £320, getting nothing) | ≈ 52% |
| Expected number of attempts | ≈ 3.2 |
| Expected spend on fees | ≈ £255 |
| Chance of ever receiving a payout | 48% × 33% ≈ 16% |
| Expected payout | 16% × £400 ≈ £63 |
| Expected net result | ≈ −£192 |
In plain English: with these assumptions, it’s slightly more likely than not that Jordan spends £320 and never gets funded, and the long-run average is a loss. Notice what changes the result most – not a cheaper fee, but a higher pass chance. That comes from practice, a tested strategy and strict risk rules, all of which you can work on for free. Try your own numbers in our true cost calculator.
Monthly fees: the futures firm version (illustrative numbers)
Many futures prop firms charge the evaluation as a monthly subscription. That changes the maths: the cost depends on how long each attempt takes, not just how many attempts you make.
Hypothetical example: $60 a month, plus $10 a month for data. Each attempt takes 2 months on average, and you allow yourself 4 attempts.
- Cost per attempt: ($60 + $10) × 2 = $140.
- If all 4 fail: 4 × $140 = $560 (about £430 at £1 = $1.30), before any activation fee.
- If you pass on the third attempt: 3 × $140 = $420, plus any activation fee.
Discount codes make the first month look cheap, but a slow, careful approach – which is what we recommend – means more months. Use the monthly mode in the True Cost Calculator to run your own numbers.
Set your budget before you start
If, after all that, you still want to take a challenge one day, decide these things before you buy anything – and write them down:
- Total challenge budget. The most you’ll spend on challenges in total, ever, or this year. Only money you can afford to lose completely. Never borrowed money.
- Maximum attempts. For example, three. When they’re used, you stop and go back to demo – no “one more try”.
- A cooling-off rule. After a failed attempt, wait at least a week before the next one, and review your journal first.
- A personal stop. If challenges start affecting your sleep, mood, money or relationships, stop. See When trading stops being healthy for free UK support, including the National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133).
Key takeaways
- The few firms that publish figures show low pass rates per attempt, and even lower payout rates.
- Passing isn’t being paid, and being paid once isn’t the same as making money overall.
- The true cost includes every failed attempt, resets, currency fees and your time.
- Your pass chance matters far more than the fee. Improve it for free on demo before paying.
- Set a total budget and a maximum number of attempts before you start.
Quick quiz
- Why is “51.8% of people passed at least one” higher than “16.8% of evaluations were passed”? (Many people bought several evaluations before passing.)
- Is passing a challenge the same as receiving a payout? (No – many funded traders never receive one.)
- At a 20% pass chance per attempt and no limit on attempts, how many attempts would you need on average? (5 – that’s 1 ÷ 0.2.)
- Name three costs beyond the challenge fee. (Any three: resets, activation/monthly fees, card/currency fees, platform/data fees, time, tax on payouts.)
- What’s the best free way to improve your pass chance? (Practise a tested strategy on demo under the same rules as the challenge.)
Key terms
Prop firm · Evaluation · Funded account · Simulated account · Payout · Profit split · Expectancy · Revenge trading
Try this
Open our true cost calculator. Enter a challenge price you’ve seen, and three different pass chances: 5%, 15% and 30%. For each, write down the chance of failing every attempt and the expected net result. Then write one sentence answering: “What would I need to do to honestly believe my pass chance is 30%?” Your answer is your practice plan for the next few months.
FAQ
What percentage of people pass prop firm challenges? Firms rarely publish audited figures. The figures we checked ranged from about 7% to about 17% of attempts passing, with far fewer people receiving payouts. Treat any figure as a rough guide.
Are prop firms a scam? Not necessarily – many pay out under their terms. But the model relies on evaluation fees from the majority who don’t pass, and firms can and do change rules, and some have stopped trading or delayed payouts. Read the terms and only spend what you can afford to lose.
Is it cheaper to learn on a prop challenge than on a live account? It can cap your losses at the fee, which some people find useful. But it’s not free, and the rules are stricter than most live accounts. A demo account is cheaper still for learning.
Disclaimer: This page is general education, not financial or investment advice or a personal recommendation, and it doesn’t take your circumstances into account. Examples are hypothetical, for illustration only, and not an invitation to buy or sell. Learning a strategy doesn’t guarantee profits. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Futures, spread bets and CFDs are complex and carry a high risk of losing money quickly because of leverage, and most retail traders lose money. With a real futures account, losses can exceed your deposit. Prop firm challenges are paid evaluations: the fee is usually lost, and funded accounts are usually simulated. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and speak to an independent FCA-authorised adviser if you’re unsure. Firm figures quoted are self-reported and unaudited. Read our full risk warning.